Baghdad: Another line Bites the Dust?

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This weeks 5 + 1 conference and diplomatic activity around Iranian nuclear operations we all witness, aroused the subject for a while; however referring the experience UN, IAEA and world leaders have with Iranian delegation does not give much room for optimism and Iran2407 keeps the skeptical vision on the matter and the reason for it is the almost decade-long effort to persuade Iran’s government to halt the uranium enrichment. Is there another red line melted and fell to diplomacy efforts?

The Economist in his last week’s editorial fully enlightens the topic :

“…OPTIMISM, in the intricate and frustrating world of international wrangling about Iran’s nuclear programme, is a relative concept. But the White House did call the opening of talks between Iran and the “5+1 group” (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany) in Istanbul four weeks ago a “positive first step”. After several months in which a pre-emptive military strike by Israel on Iran’s nuclear facilities seemed to be becoming more likely, hopes of a diplomatic solution have now risen. Attention is switching to Baghdad where, on May 23rd, the work on a deal will begin in earnest.

Iran’s return to the table in an apparently more constructive mood marks a sharp change. The latest round of talks failed in January 2011, after Iran’s chief negotiator, Saeed Jalili, set preconditions that other countries found unacceptable. But since the end of 2011 pressure on the regime in Tehran has increased. The UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), published a damning report detailing its concerns over the “possible military dimensions” of Iran’s nuclear programme.

 

The last time Iran seemed interested in co-operating was in 2003, shortly after the invasion of Iraq. George Bush had named Iran as part of the “axis of evil” (which also contained Iraq and North Korea). Fearing that it could suffer Iraq’s fate, Iran signed the Additional Protocol of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which gives IAEA inspectors souped-up rights of access. Two years later, when things were going badly wrong for America in Iraq and Iran believed the threat of an invasion had passed, it reneged on those commitments.

But responding to pressure is not the same as genuine willingness to do a deal. Optimists think the restarted talks could persuade Iran to take a new course and defuse a hugely dangerous crisis. But sceptics believe that the regime is playing for time, growing ever closer to the point where it can produce a small arsenal of nuclear weapons. Doomsters contend that it is all too late anyway: Iran is already so close to the nuclear threshold that the main effort should now be to dissuade potential nuclear rivals, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, from taking the same path…” (The Economist)

 

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