The Huffington Post ran an article on Eight Arguments Against an Iran Nuclear Deal — and Why They Are Wrong. It’s worth reading. It goes through 8 reasons why people are skeptical of a nuclear deal with Iran with rebuttals on why the nuclear deal is the only viable solution at this time.
What the people at HuffPost don’t seem to understand is that the Iranians are playing hardball while the US is still trying to figure out the rules of the game:
- Khamenei restated his red lines which refute all of all of the US’s demands: immediate sanction relief, no inspections, no access to scientists, no 10 year time limit, no limit on R&D.
- The Iranian parliament, drafted a law to ban “any inspection of military, security and non-nuclear sites as well as access to documents and scientists” making the negotiations of such inspections illegal. It should be noted that the bill breezed by easily and was followed by “Death to America” chants.
- Rouhani quietly stated that the nuclear deal is available IF there are no “excessive demands”, which includes any demand that deviates from Khamenei’s red lines.
- Zarif followed this with his “failure in talks is not the end of the world” quip leaving no doubt that Tehran is ready to leave the negotiations.
- On the other hand, Kerry seems to be too eager for comfort: The US seems so intent on signing a deal, any deal, that it keeps on re-accepting Iranian red lines. Here’s one of the ideas being bounced around lately: The US may be ready to trade good nukes (nuclear plant for electricity) for bad nukes (heavy water plant in Arak).
- Khamenei’s “nuclear fatwa” calls for blind trust above wide-eyed transparency and is seriously being considered by the US as a way to save face with Khamenei.
- Iran has a definite Plan B in the form of aligning itself with Russia, China and its trade neighbors (Azerbaijan, Turkey, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan etc…) thus satisfactorily circumventing of any of the effects of the remaining sanctions and placing the US between a rock and a hard place. The West, on the other hand has no viable plan B except increase sanctions, which will lose their teeth after Iran’s Plan B.
- And finally, Tehran is getting more and more involved in fighting in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, reminding all that it is ready to take the fight beyond its borders.
Now, to the bottom lines:
- HuffPost: The bottom line is that this deal promises to be by far the most effective way of preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, and doing so moreover without recourse to military action.
- Iran 24/07: The bottom line is that this deal cannot guarantee prevention of a nuclear Iran and if signed, will probably be short-lived because of lack of transparency and the issue of snap-back sanctions.